CORRELATIONS: Because of this interrelationship for example, the American administration finds itself having to take Venezuela into consideration when it draws up policy on Iran. Russia and China have—after decades of rivalry—become allies in the fight against Islamic extremism. The correlation between oil and terrorism is even credited with rescuing old alliances—such as that between the United States and Saudi Arabia—from collapse.

Great powers—such as the United States, Europe, China, Russia, and India—are competing intensely for economic domination, using oil as a major weapon; on the other side of this struggle for global hegemony, extremist Islamist groups are making increasing use of terrorism as a means of protest and resistance—thus holding hostage the very peoples the Islamists pretend to be fighting for, and facilitating foreign control of oil resources. This is especially true in the Arab world.

It is therefore extremely important to read the new map of global alliances and enmities correctly, as it is to make peoples aware of the astronomical price they will be required to pay for the Islamists’ campaign of ‘protest’.
Iraq, an arena where oil, terrorism, liberation, and occupation interact and play out against each other, is walking a tightrope towards democracy and full sovereignty; there is a very real chance that the country might fragment into small warring sectarian statelets.
Needless to say, one of the major objectives of the Iraq war was to replace the Saddam Hussein regime with pro-Western government that would be ensure Washington’s pre-eminence in future struggles for global greatness. Oil is an essential prerequisite for great power status, and Iraq is full of oil; in fact, it is estimated to hold the second largest oil reserve in the world. Russia expended a lot of money, time, and effort in Iraq in the belief that by controlling Iraqi oil reserves—in addition to its own—it could become a major world power. But the American invasion and occupation put paid to those dreams.

Recently, talk has been increasing of a possible U.S. pullout from Iraq within months. This does not imply that Washington will not leave in place a pliant Iraqi government that would ensure U.S. control of Iraqi oil resources.
In the contemporary world, having permanent military bases in the traditional sense is not that important if special relationships that can assure continued and free access to oil can be entered into. At any rate, it is almost inconceivable that U.S. forces would be withdrawn from Iraq as long as the insurgency continues to threaten the new Iraqi government.

Paradoxically, the ‘resistance’ is actually prolonging the occupation it says it is fighting. The bloodbath in Iraq is therefore set to continue, with new atrocities reported every week, and new piles of bodies discovered on a regular basis, to the disgust of most Iraqis.
It is now essential for popular forces in the Arab world to come up with a common position in support of the Iraqi people, who are being ground down by a foreign occupation on the one hand, and a vicious extremist Islamist insurgency on the other.

Whatever Arabs think of the reasons why the U.S. has occupied Iraq (and whatever their opinions of the Egyptian regime for that matter), they must utterly reject the massacres which are taking place on a regular basis in Iraq—and the phenomenon of the ‘terrorist family’ which was demonstrated last week in Cairo.
There is no need to fall into the trap of having to choose between only two options, either the Americans or the terrorists; there are many parties vying for power and influence in the Middle East besides those two. While more or less traditional rivalries predominate in Iraq, the global war on terror brings together such diverse parties as Russia, India, China, Europe, and the United States.

Russia for example is using military means almost exclusively in dealing with the problem of Chechnya—after having succeeded in transforming the Chechen question into one only of terrorism. In the meantime, Russia and China re in the process of creating a strategic alliance to confront U.S.-European expansionism and global economic domination.
The partnership between Moscow and Beijing was born after the U.S. invasion of Iraq, and was driven by their desire to confront Islamist extremism (from Chechnya in Russia’s case, and from the Islamic western provinces in China’s). Nevertheless, the enterprise was underpinned by an urgent mutual need to confront the United States.

According to economic experts, Russia is now providing China with a significant proportion of its oil needs, in exchange for financial guarantees and loans. The two countries are also reportedly carrying out secret military operations in order to formulate a joint strategy for self-defense. This, according to experts, is the first time China has ever established a mechanism for close consultation in security matters with Russia.

In an interview with Newsweek’s Christopher Dickey, Saudi foreign minister Saud al-Faisal said that China has become his country’s biggest oil customer. Asked whether a strategic relationship exists between Riyadh and Beijing, the minister replied that, ‘if oil supplies can be seen as constituting a strategic relationship, then yes, I suppose there is.’ But al-Faisal went on to describe his country’s ties with China as being ‘still in their infancy, while those with the United States are much stronger and deeper’.
The Saudi official said that the fact that President Bush is an oilman (who ‘realizes where his country’s interests lie’) perhaps rescued the Saudi-American relationship from meltdown. He went on to say that, Washington now appreciates how much effort the Saudi government has put in fighting domestic terrorism.

The immediate need, the minister said, is to prevent terrorists from crossing over into the kingdom from neighboring Iraq. The thrust of al-Faisal’s statements was that while fighting terrorism was the immediate priority facing relations between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, their relationship was built first and foremost on oil.
Surprisingly enough, recent efforts by the U.S. administration to repair ties with Saudi Arabia did not elicit any howls of protest from American opponents of Saudi-American relationship—perhaps because the mere mention of the name ‘Chavez’ (referring to the deterioration of relations between the U.S. and the Venezuelan president) was enough to silence even the harshest critics.

Hugo Chavez, who harbors an intense hatred of the United States and of the Bush administration in particular, has not let an opportunity for damaging America’s relations with third parties pass by without exploiting it in order to undermine U.S. ‘unilateralism.’
Accusing the Bush administration of being behind an attempted coup against his government three years ago, Chavez is out to seek revenge. The United States relies on Venezuela for 15 percent of its oil supplies, making the latter one of the biggest four oil exporters to the American market. Not a trifle by any means.
What makes Chavez even more of a threat to the United States is the possibility that in addition to cutting off oil supplies to the U.S., the Venezuelan president might decide to sell oil to China instead. Since Washington’s relations with Venezuela are constantly deteriorating, ‘this is no time to abandon ties as important as those with Saudi Arabia,’ as some Bush administration officials put it. To make matters worse, Chavez has allied his country with Iran both within OPEC and more generally. Unfortunately for Washington, it has very few options to deal with the Venezuelan leader.

Chavez is after all a democratically elected leader; furthermore, his neighbors are not willing to do without the oil supplies he has been selling them at well below market prices just to obey America’s request to isolate Venezuela.
Relations between the Chavez government and China have been improving over the last twelve months, with official visits being exchanged. Chavez has decided to nurture China as an alternative oil market to the United States. According to the Venezuelan leader, ‘What is required to break away from unilateralism is a mutually beneficial relationship’.
What he has in mind is for China to invest in developing neglected Venezuelan oilfields in exchange for cheap oil. Not that China is the only major power Chavez has been wooing: He has also been busy building military ties with Russia and Brazil, among others.

Which brings us to Iran. After meeting with President Khatami on a recent trip to Tehran, Chavez declared that Iran has ‘all the right’ to develop a nuclear program. Moreover, experts believe that the Venezuelan leader is about to conclude a mutual defense pact with the Iranians. Should Iran be attacked by the United States, then according to this pact Venezuela would consider itself to be at war with the United States.
He is in the process of forming a 2 million strong militia, and enjoys considerable popularity in his country as well as in neighboring Latin American states. But the main factor which makes Chavez so important is oil because of Venezuela’s unique position in the rush for economic greatness by the major powers.

For its part, Iran welcomes new alliances and chooses to enter into those it believes serve its long-term strategic interests. Tehran has already established close ties with China, Russia, and Europe. The Iranians see their country as a major power in its own right, and believe that they have as much right to develop nuclear technology as India, Pakistan, and Israel. Tehran understands what transient alliances and partnerships entail; that is why it has decided to study all available options and take matters into its own hands.
Iran is unlikely to oppose the American project for spreading democracy in the Arab world, primarily because this project has resulted in a Shiite government in neighboring Iraq—a development that suits Iran. The Iranians are too smart to give the Americans an excuse to attack, or to allow terrorism access to their country. In Iraq, Iran enjoys considerable influence, but without impinging on U.S. forces. While harboring ties with certain terrorist groups, Iran would never allow terrorists to express themselves on Iranian soil. Iran is therefore one of very few Muslim nations to have benefited from the interrelationship of oil and terrorism.

Iran has been behaving with a great degree of wisdom and patience. While their Arab neighbors have been tearing their countries apart in struggles for power, the Iranians have been pondering their position on the global stage.

In common with China and India, Iran knows how to find an appropriate position for itself in the race for global supremacy. The Arabs for their part are only just beginning to figure that out.

For them, it is going to be a long haul.

End.