Welcome to the Broadcast. Tonight we talk about a Report from the UN about the assassination of Former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri of Lebanon and what it means for the Syrian Government.

Rose - We begin this evening with a Report on the assassination of Former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri. The Report implicates high-ranking Syrian and Lebanese Officials. The original draft mentions President Assad's brother and Brother-in-Law. Earlier today there was much controversy over the exclusion of those and other names in the final draft.

The Chief UN Investigator Detlev Mehlis offered his explanation in a Press Conference.

Mehlis - The final and only Official version of the Report was the one that was submitted to the Secretary-General and transmitted by him to the Security Council and the one you received in hard-copy. I want to make it clear that any differences between earlier versions and the final version of the text resulted from the editorial process carried out by team, under my direction, and under my direct responsibility.

No one outside of my Report Team influenced these changes, and no changes what-so-ever were suggested by the Secretary-General; or by anyone in the United Nations.

Rose - Syrian Ambassador to the United Nations Faisal Mekdad and President Bush reacted to the report.

(Video)

Mekdad - I think this was a big lie. Nobody was involved in such a thing, and I think it's really a pity that --I mean some people are sitting and dreaming and writing reports. This is absolutely unacceptable, and we have proofs that such people were never involved in such a process.

Bush - The Report is deeply disturbing. The Report suggests that it is, --strongly suggests that the politically motivated assassination could not have taken place without Syrian involvement. I called Secretary Rice this morning and instructed her to call upon the United Nations to convene a Session as quickly as possible to deal with this very serious matter.

Rose - The Security Council will be briefed on the Report next Tuesday.

Joining me now, Warren Hoge of the New York Times, Raghida Dergham of the Arabic newspaper Al-Hayat, and Abderrahim Foukara from Al-Jazerra.

I am pleased to have them here to talk about this. Tell me what's in it, what does it say, and how --what are the crimes that is accused, and who of doing those crimes?

Foukara - Well, it basically starts off by saying that there is converging evidence of the involvement of the Syrian Security apparatus and the Lebanese Security apparatus and looks at --it's a very detailed report; looking at various facts including telephone conversations right up to the minute when the Former Prime Minister of Lebanon was assassinated.

They connect telephone calls between various people the report claims had organized the killing of Hariri, and it says that given the complexity of the operation that led to Hariri's killing, it cannot be the work of an individual, it has to be the work of a group.

It had to be the work of a group that actually got help, and support --logistical what have you from a State.

Rose - The Security forces of a State, and they even describe how they got the bomb into Lebanon?

Foukara - They certainly describe how they got the Van that was involved in the bombing from across the border, and that it had been seen at another location in Beirut. The funny thing about the Report is --apart from the facts which some people may not necessarily call facts, we've already seen the Syrians contesting those facts so we'll see --my guess, a lot of interpretations, different interpretations of how those facts are put together in the Report.

The interesting thing about the Report is that it's obviously written by a Prosecutor so there's a lot of legalese, but some parts of it felt like "Murder She Wrote", it felt like Agatha Christie.

Rose - In what way?

Foukara - Well just in the sense that he describes the --basically the various things that led to the killing, the run-up to the killing of Hariri, where they got the explosives, how they put themselves in different locations, where they got the phones, what they talked about on the phone. That part of it was a fascinating read.

Rose - Is this evidence, or is this speculation?

Dergham - Remember that the evidence wouldn't be presented until the trials. The Security Council is a place where you don't have to --sort of be the Prosecutor because you need only to put the case out, and the case as I read it right now --from the variety of things that happened today is this: The President of Syria, Bachar Assad is being put on notice. He's being told the following, ...we have in the Report the language of Syria obstructing the investigation; that is in the Report.

There is another element --another portion of the Report which has the deleted names that you mentioned a little earlier; the brother of the Syrian President, and his brother-in-law as being suspect according to one of the witnesses.

The message is this; "Deliver, Mr. Bachar Assad. Give us this --you know, this is what we need, we need to...

(Crosstalk)

Rose - ...the ball is in his court so to speak...

Dergham - ...but the point is that I think he cannot; and I think that if he were to cooperate, basically, he would have to turn in his brother and brother-in-law, and possibly his whole Regime. And if he were not going to cooperate, sanctions are going to come his way, so it's a very tough situation that he's in.

Rose - Do we assume that he did not know because he needed that deny-ability? or...

Dergham - ...please go ahead.

Rose - ...no, that's all.

Dergham - We have to assume that he did not know about the planning, because he was not mentioned at all in that context because the report sort of tells us the story of who were involved in the planning over months, over weeks for the assassination of Hariri. There is no mention of Bachar Al-Assad the President of Syria, so if one were to assume --if he were to be at all in the know, IF and if only that, he would have probably been informed once the operation was in the process, once it was being executed, that is only if --because there is nothing in that report that tells us that he himself was implicated.

Rose - What do you make of this testimony that he'd threatened Hariri in their last meeting?

Dergham - Well there again, the report by Detlev Mehlis again, --he didn't go so far as to say what was directed by Bachar Al-Assad, but by mentioning that, he has somehow given us an idea that he (Assad) was part of the environment, if you will... that sort of the culture of "let's not let this guy get too big for us. Let's make sure to cut him short" because they thought it's been done before and they thought they could do it again.

And this is exactly the importance of this report. It says: the era of assassination as way, as a tool of bringing about power, or taking somebody out of power, is over in the Middle East and the Arab world.

There is scrutiny now, an International one at that.

Rose - I want to come back to that. Let me get to the the Americans here as an element. This comes at a time that the United States is unhappy with Syria because they believe that troops and weapons are coming across the Syrian border.

Hoge - Really unhappy with Syria. They believe that Syria is facilitating, sending its insurgents across their border into Iraq --they believe, and I think this is fact that Syria funds Hizbollah and other anti-Israeli guerilla groups.

They also believe that --that Assad has been doing funny business in Saudi Arabia and Egypt; which has got the Egyptians and Saudi's mad at him. He's in a very, very vulnerable position, and the United States is going to use this report. And the fact that it's a United Nations Report which gives it a kind of legitimacy, you know, beyond just being an American initiative.

They're going to use it to further isolate, to further put pressure on them. The three main Americans who spoke on this today, John Bolton at the United Nations, President Bush in California, and Condoleezza Rice who's in Alabama this weekend with Jack Straw the British Foreign Secretary,.....

Rose - ...introducing him to Alabama food,....

(Crosstalk/Laughter)

Hoge - ...that's right feeding him Southern food,...and all three of them focused-in on not
--curiously, on sanctions, but they said the Syrians must now cooperate. And it's as you say Raghida, they want Basir to give up, you know, to say ...okay, do a 180. Do what Libya did,...okay, we made a mistake. We're going to get rid of these nuclear weapons, we're going to become part of the Human type race again.

Rose - And they want Syria to do what?

Hoge - They want Syria to do the same --they just want Assad to say ...enough already, I'll stop fooling around on the border. I'll stop funding Hizbollah. (which is a dream) But the US now believes that it has Assad with his back to the wall, it believes it has support within the Region.

I mentioned Egypt and Saudi Arabia, for isolating --for thinking that Assad is a loose cannon, even in the eyes of some other Arab Nations. And it's going to be interesting to see how they play it.

Tuesday, Security Council, Detlev Mehlis makes his presentation. There will be a lot of statements made by different Nations; particularly the US and France --who in this particular thing, are joined-at-the-hip. From the very beginning they've been together in this.

Rose - So how's this going to play itself out?

Dergham - Well here's what I think is going to happen: it's very important for the Administration, (as Warren is mentioning that both the anti-Israeli Palestinian groups and, he has mentioned Iraq) I think it's so important for the Administration to avoid juxtaposing the issue of Iraq on the issue of Lebanon, if only to safeguard the accomplishments that have been made on the issue of Lebanon from the Arab consensus to go with the International decision in support of the Investigation.

And there is --for example, take a look at the Palestinian/Lebanese relationship, it's a fascinating one right now. It has Palestinians and Lebanese cooperating on the level of President Mahmoud Abbas --the Palestinian President, and the Prime Minister of Lebanon Mr. Seniora.

They are cooperating in a very smart way. In a way to say to Syria ...it's no longer your ballgame only, Syria used to tell Lebanon -- to dictate to Lebanon the nature the Lebanon should have with the Palestinian leadership.

Now it's a completely different ballgame, and it's important to safeguard it. It's very important to make sure that, Lebanon is really a very pretty picture. Potentially, there may be instability and destabilizing for probably a sort of transitional period. But in the final analysis, this is a very good story; it's a very optimistic story; it's about change from the inside...

Rose - You mean what's happening in Lebanon........

Dergham - ...yes, supported by the outside. Unfortunately the catalyst --of course I have to say the catalyst unfortunately, had to be the assassination of the former Prime Minister, Mr. Hariri but....

Rose - Let me just stop you there, when there seems to be --first of all no question in terms of almost everybody I ever talked to about this from day one, that the Syrians were behind it; whoever they were. Whether it was the brother-in-law, the brother, or whoever might be involved. The Syrians asked this question: This was not good for us. We got kicked out of Lebanon because of this. Look what's happening to us now, there's an investigation,...I mean, our fingerprints were all over it. If we did this, we were really stupid.
I mean there's some logic in that, so why did they do it, if they did it --which everybody seems to assume they did.

Dergham - Because they've gotten away with it before, and they thought they could get away with it again.....

Rose - Is assassinating people that prominent?

Dergham - Oh Yes. In Lebanon??...of course Charlie, yes.......

Foukara - I....

Dergham - ...go ahead.

Foukara - I was just going to say, I mean, it is a very puzzling episode in..........

Rose - ...in stupidity....

Foukara - Well,...

Rose - ...when you look at the consequences.....

Foukara - When you look at the consequences. I mean, they knew that the eyes of the International Community were increasingly placed upon them, not least because of accusations that they were funding the insurgency in Iraq, whether that's true or not. But the timing of the killing of Hariri certainly did not --did not help them, but what I find most interesting about it, perhaps more than the timing is the fact that it's joined --as Warren said, the Americans and the French at the hip.

Now whether the French will stay on the same train all the way to it's destination I'm not sure. My sense is that what the French are looking for --they're basically looking to divide influence with the Americans, whereby the Americans would consolidate their influence in Syria using the regional support of Saudi Arabia/Egypt. But the French have always had eyes and interest, strong interest in Lebanon. And re-shuffling the cards in Lebanon, would
re-strengthen the hand --their hand, the French hand in that, in that Country.

But beyond what, beyond what happens between the French and the agreement --it seems to me, to sort of divide the cake if you will, beyond that I'm not sure where the region is actually headed.

Rose - What do you think,...will the UN try to....go ahead.

Hoge - I was just going to say, listening to what Abderrahim was saying and remembering his description --his apt description of this reading like a thriller Novel, when you look at Assad, and you look at the Syrians, and you think to yourself really how stupid they've been, on their own terms they have lost a lot.

It was September 2nd last year that the UN, no the Secretary-General passed a Resolution saying that the Syrians ought to get out of Lebanon. I don't know about you guys --you know the region better than I do, I'm thinking this will never happen, it's certainly not going to happen fast. Well in a years time all of the Syrians are out, they're embarrassed to be out, the President is shamed in Syria for it.

And now this crime comes along and in this reading that Abderrahim was talking about there
is so much evidence, they left their fingerprints everywhere, I mean cellphone numbers, ...everything.
They were really "the gang that can't shoot straight".

Rose - How do you account for that?

Dergham - Again, because they had control of the Country, I think they did not think it would get to this. I don't know that it is appropriate to say, but it's like the blue dress. You know?? In a way they....

Rose - ...the Monica Lewenski dress.......

Dergham - Yes they just thought that the evidence would never be found. They just didn't know it would go so far as having an investigation of this level, you know by the Security Council. And so that's where they are now.

But if there is a military strike that you were speaking of,...and we don't know about the American options. If there is an option militarily with Syria, I think it will really torpedo all of the gains made so far, because then Syria will win. And they will have all of the Arabs around them, and the international community saying, you see, it's about what the Americans wanted to begin with.

If the Regime falls right now, it'll be because of their own wrongdoing. So let it be.

Rose - If it falls, it'll fall to what kind of force?...From what kind of --forget for the moment ...set aside, and I'll address the issue that it's likely that America would engage in some kind of strike along the borders or whatever they might do. Who would topple the Regime?...likely.

Dergham - We hear that it may be even an Alawite General........

Rose - A military coup...

Dergham - Yes, probably a military coup, but also what I think --I think if there is any proof, if the brother and the brother-in-law --the strongmen are implicated in a very serious way, the idea is that they will just crumble. The Regime will just crumble, and then --that's why Bachar Al-Assad the President of Syria keeps saying "Listen,...watch out, it's either me or chaos".

He keeps saying that to say, sort of: be careful, I am your sort of safety valve. But others say not so, not necessarily so.

Foukara - You know the interesting thing in terms of locating the level of responsibility within the Syrian State as to what may or may not have happened in Lebanon. There's a clue, there's an interesting clue in what Basir Assad said in that interview with CNN a few days ago.

Rose - The one with Christiane Amanpour....

Foukara - The interview with Christiane Amanpour, and he said, "...you have to make up your mind, because sometimes I am accused of being a dictator, and sometimes I'm accused of not actually having a real handle on the situation in Syria."

And Mehlis' report doesn't actually go so far as to say that there is a possibility that Basir Al-Assad may be involved, but it says we actually --we issued a subpoena that you refused to actually meet with us.
So he's basically --if you look at that statement in his interview with CNN,...he's saying that --there's plenty of possibilities of interpreting the report, that I stand on both --I stand at the opposite ends of the spectrum.

I'm not the Dictator, but at the same time I do know what's going on. That in between those two points there's a world of possibility as to who may have been behind the killing of Hariri, in or within the Syrian State itself.

Rose - What do you think that Washington is likely to do?

Hoge - I think, first of all if the Syrians keeps acting like they're acting right now, there'll be no need for a Military strike...

Rose - ...exactly, and they probably understand that it would be fraught with risk within the Region.......

Hoge - ...and I also think that in Washington there is little disposition for another adventure, no appetite, and they have other problems. When Condoleezza Rice says that we're not taking it off the table, that's just usual Diplo-speak for saying that all options are open, I don't think nobody's really thinking about doing that...........

Dergham - I think they're thinking of going gradual. Gradually, by first demanding full cooperation and saying --you know so they can have the Chinese and Russians onboard.
And if by that time they don't deliver exactly like Detlev Mehlis wants, which is to see the witnesses outside of the country if he wants to, if he wants to see them without having to
have the presence of Syrian Officials, and to probably see the Syrian President himself.

If they don't deliver then they'll have the Russians and Chinese onboard, and then they'll go to sanctions.

Hoge - I'd like to pick-up on something you said, on the significance of this Report, one potential significance is: in the Security Council, Russia and China usually don't like sanctions. They probably don't like the idea of sanctions against Syria. The significance of the report, as damning as I think this one is, it will arm the Americans, the French and others and they can say to the Chinese and Russians "...do you really want to stand in the way of sanctions against a Country that is so clearly guilty? Look we have a German Prosecutor, a United Nations Independent Report.

It might be effective as a way of making the Chinese and Russians abstain rather than to cast a Veto.

Foukara - I was going to say that the statement that Mehlis was quoted --where he was quoted in the German newspaper "Stern" a few days ago, he said something interesting, he said, "...now I have a better understanding of what Hans Blix had gone through when they were looking for weapons of mass-destruction in Iraq, in terms of the complexity of the situation and the pressures that Hans Blix was under. Except, except that --I mean in other words, he says that I know where Hans Blix was coming from in terms of drafting his reports. Except that Hans Blix in a way always sat on the middle of the fence in his reports, and he let people interpret his reports the way they saw fit.

With this particular report, with Mehlis' Report, he may --Mehlis may appreciate indeed the pressures that Hans Blix had experienced at that time. He may, he may have a better understanding of those pressures, but the thing --if he managed to actually give everyone something to work with including the Syrians --he has done it to a certain extent, my sense is that he has given the Americans and the French a better hand in terms of convincing other Countries in the Security Council to take the kind of measures that Condoleezza Rice has been talking about, and move in the direction of sanctions.

Rose - Do you agree with that??

Dergham - Yes.

Hoge - I do.

Rose - So this is, --the report gives an opportunity to get some kind of Security Council action. As you've said the Chinese will abstain and the Russians........

Dergham - ...not just abstain; they may even come onboard and........

Hoge - ...or maybe come onboard but the effectiveness of the report is that it is so strong, that it is legitimate, it comes from a guy that is pretty un-assailable, twenty-five years in the Berlin Prosecutors Office, a lot of terror groups broken by him.

It's a very persuasive --even though it's all circumstantial evidence, there's so much of it.

Rose - And he did it all in how long?

Hoge - Four months.......

Dergham - ...but it's not complete Charlie. Remember he said --Detlev Mehlis himself said clearly in his report that this is not the end of it. He's going to stay in Lebanon now, his mandate is going to be extended, and then there is going to be the next stages which he spoke about.

He's going to say to the Syrians: show me what you've got; then there will be the final report where you will see that there are others involved, and to what level he may go.

Rose - The Syrians are trying to argue --we saw the Ambassador,...they're crazy, we didn't do anything. Are the Syrians attacking this point by point or........

Hoge - ...it's all lies.........

Rose - ...so it's just a broad-brush denial....

(Cross-talk)

Dergham - ...except that we heard --there were news reports that they were planning on sending the detailed --sort of response to all of the charges, but we haven't seen it yet...

Rose - ...but from what I'm told it's on Syrian television, and there's a huge amount of attention on this report.

Dergham - Yes, because you know this --this is a devastating report to which they say: absolutely not; This is irrelevant and does not matter... when in fact it is a devastating report.

Rose - What happened on Al-Jazzera --before you make that point, or remember that point on Al-Jazzera, did you have somebody read it? --somebody sitting with you, what happened? I wish I had Video.

Foukara - What happened was quite interesting --was quite surreal even if you like. I, I got the report so I called them and said "I have the Report". So this was just a little before 7 O'clock...

Rose - ...and this is the Anchor Desk in Washington?

Foukara - ...the Anchor, yea.....in Washington,...so this is --no, no the Anchor in Headquarters in Doha. So they said...okay could you be with us at 7o'clock? Just tell us a little bit, in brief, what's --what are the main points in the report...

Rose - ...this is 7 o'clock this morning?...

Foukara - ...no this is 7 o'clock last night...

Dergham - We all got the report at that time so....

Foukara - So I go on-air at 7:00 with this report, and then the first question was "...tell us what's in it. And I said I've only just got it. I cannot tell you with any certainty exactly what's in it, I can only read you small passages from it. I read a couple of passages and then news started coming in from the agencies AP, Reuters, and the Anchor was actually picking up this stuff.

So they got somebody else on the line. I didn't catch his name, but from his answers it sounded like somebody who is pro-Syrian. And this guys argument was:...you cannot just pick and choose from the report. This is way too early to discuss it. And then, somebody spoke into my ear and --he's one of the main editors in Doha, and he said, "We're going to try to have you read the Report in full. I thought it was a joke....

Hoge - ...it's 54 pages.....

Foukara - ...it's 54 pages...and...

Rose - ...I have it here...

Dergham - ...oh my gosh...

Foukara - ...obviously I'm thinking, we were on-air and I didn't have time to discuss it, I obviously --I knew that it wasn't a joke. So three minutes later I heard the Anchor say "...okay now were going to go to our man in New York, and he's going to read it". So I sat there, and I read that report, all 53 pages both sides, live on-air while somebody in Doha was doing simultaneous translations.

Dergham - I heard that because I was doing LBC --because I do LBC as well, our partners at Al-Hayat LBC, and what I did --I said, "I don't want to go on camera, what I want to do is just --I want a phone connection, and let me just read, find something interesting and translate..."

I was an Interpreter rather than a Journalist last night. ...(Laughter)...I chose...

(Laughter)

Foukara - ...it took from --I started reading about 7:30 and I finished at exactly 10 minutes to Midnight.

Dergham - Oh my..........

Rose - How many viewers do you think you had with you at that point?

Foukara - Probably only two households, but probably every Government in the Region.

Rose - Well I don't know, it reads like a murder mystery, we've already established that. Listen to this, I'm going to read this last paragraph. The next to the last paragraph --the last paragraph is everybody's innocent until proven guilty.

209. It is the Commission’s conclusion that, after having interviewed witnesses and suspects in the Syrian Arab Republic and establishing that many leads point directly towards Syrian security officials as being involved with the assassination, it is incumbent upon Syria to clarify a considerable part of the unresolved questions.
While the Syrian authorities, after initial hesitation, have cooperated to a limited degree with the Commission, several interviewees tried to mislead the investigation by giving false or
inaccurate statements. The letter addressed to the Commission by the Foreign Minister of
the Syrian Arab Republic proved to contain false information. (by the Foreign Minister)
The full picture of the assassination can only be reached through an extensive and credible investigation that would be conducted in an open and transparent manner to the full satisfaction of international scrutiny.

Hoge - but you had to wait 3hrs and 40 minutes on Al-Jazerra to hear that...........

(Laughter)

Dergham - ...and did you get a glass of water?.........

(Laughter)

(Crosstalk)

Rose: OK, you've -- update me real quick. We've got to go.

Hoge - ...extended to December 15th the Security Council at the very least this week will endorse some kind of statement saying that Syria, you must cooperate now you can't --so Detlev Mehlis will go back with all his investigators, armed with more --with documents, or pressure-points from the Security Council of the United Nations and presumably can do better.

Dergham - This is an earthquake in the Region, this is no less than an earthquake in the Region. That there is accountability, and there's going to be trials. That the Security apparatus does not rule without having anybody scrutinize them.

It's an internal/external effort of an incredible dimension, and it's something to watch.

Foukara - One problem though that I have to point out about this report is that we know that almost every government is saying that ...We still haven't had time to read it carefully and that includes the Syrians, but the Syrians came out from the very beginning saying that this is not a credible report. Now what happened with Mehlis, the official version, and the unofficial version, in the unofficial version it turned out that he had mentioned names and one of them was the brother of the President of Syria Basir Al-Assad, and that was omitted in the official version.
My sense is that the deletions and the confusion those deletions have created in the minds --especially of the Media have will go some way towards joining-up with the Syrian claim that the report lacks credibility. It will affect the credibility........

Rose - ...so the deletions were a mistake because it raises questions...

Foukara - ...it has instilled doubt in peoples minds.

Rose - I have to leave it there with your own words, it's an earth-shaking report having to do with the very future of a central country that adjoins Iraq among other things.

END