THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
AARON BROWN, HOST: Tonight, the president speaks out on the Middle East for the second day that the violence continues. Today, Mr. Bush called on both sides to stop the fighting, but what can he really do about it? The Mideast dilemma, tonight, on GREENFIELD AT LARGE.

Good evening, I'm Aaron Brown. Jeff is off tonight.

Today's news is a little bit like the movie "Groundhog Day." You remember the movie, Bill Murray keeps reliving the same day over and over again. That's how it is in the Middle East, isn't it? There is violence, which leads to more violence, which eventually leads to some international intervention, which leads to some formal peace talks, which leads to some hope, which inevitably seems to lead to nothing, and then it starts all over again.

In the movie, it's all very funny and it ends well. In the Middle East, there is nothing funny at all and there is no end, not to the violence anyway. One thing that always seems to happen, though, is we reporters gather smart people around us and start looking for causes and cures and we do so again tonight.

But first, a short trip down the latest road.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN (voice-over): Last night, it was Jenin. Israel troops moving into that key Palestinian area as they had moved into Orient House, the Palestinian Authority offices, over the weekend.

HANAN ASHRAWI, PALESTINIAN COUNCIL MEMBER: The invasion of the Orient House and Palestinian institutions in Jerusalem and the villages around it, it shows very clearly, beyond any shadow of a doubt, that this Israeli government has no peace agenda at all.

BROWN (voice-over): The Israelis still mourning the deaths and the injuries of two suicide bombings and nurturing years of anger and distrust, accept no blame.

DORE GOLD, ADVISER TO SHARON: The escalation is being done by the Palestinian Authority, which refuses to take responsibility for the areas under its control and has allowed them to become a hub of terrorism against Israel. BROWN: And this is how it always goes. Each side blames the other, neither side publicly accepts that it's own actions help keep the cycle of violence alive, which has left the international community throwing up its hands in a kind of diplomatic despair.

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: There's nothing that an administration can do if there's no will for peace.

BROWN: A year ago, there was some hope. The Camp David talks last summer produced an Israeli proposal that seemed to be the basis for a deal. Israel handing over almost all of the West Bank and Gaza, settlements removed, some symbolic right of return. More than Israel had ever offered, almost everything the Palestinian side had been seeking.

But Arafat didn't say yes. Maybe he couldn't say yes. Maybe no Palestinian leader is in a position to accept anything but total victory.

And so, after Sharon rejected advise not to visit a Muslim Holy site, the violence began again.

And former Senator George Mitchell led a team to assess how this happened, and what to do now.

GEORGE MITCHELL, FORMER U.S. SENATOR: In light of the ongoing violence...

BROWN (voice-over): End the violence, he said. Restore a measure of trust. Begin again, again.

As for what triggered the last ten months of violence, the Mitchell Report used language that might apply to the entire history of this conflict.

Amid rising anger, fear and mistrust, each side assumed the worst about the other and acted accordingly, which it seems is exactly where we are today.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: The situation in the Middle East today all too familiar to our first guest. Joining us from his home in N.E. Harbour, Maine, former Senator George Mitchell, who not only oversaw the report that bears his name, but also helped mediate Northern Ireland's peace talks.

Senator, good evening. You get all the easy jobs, I guess.

MITCHELL: Thanks, Aaron. It's nice to talk to you.

BROWN: Appreciate you coming in.

Let me start at what may, perhaps is the end, and we'll work back to the beginning. Do you believe, sir, that on the ground today, the major players believe in the Middle East that peace is attainable? MITCHELL: Yes, I do. Primarily because the alternative is so painful and difficult for both sides.

On my last visit there a couple of months ago, Prime Minister Sharon and Chairman Arafat both said to me, separately, after lengthy meetings that I had with them, that life had become unbearable for the members of their society. That was a couple of months ago, and it's gotten much worse since then.

And so I believe that as painful as the political compromises that will be necessary are going to be, they are far preferable to the devastating effects on both sides of continuing the conflict.

BROWN: We seem, sir, a thousand miles from talking about political compromises. We can't get these two parties to stop literally killing each other, which everyone agrees has to be the first step. How do we do that?

MITCHELL: Well, the first step was recommended by our committee, and it included an immediate and unconditional cessation of violence accompanied by a resumption of security cooperation. Then a series of reciprocal confidence building measures and into serious negotiation.

Now, we said they have to happen in sequence, but they all have to happen if the cessation of violence is to be sustained. And I believe what's needed is an effort by both sides to move to those steps. They have to stop the violence first, because nothing is going to happen in this continuing and highly emotional and highly charged atmosphere of violence. And then there have to be reciprocal measures taken to try to at least to some degree rebuild the confidence that's been completely shattered over the past ten months.

BROWN: But has there been enough pain in this ten month run of violence to get the parties to stop killing each other and move on to those other steps that you lay out in the report?

MITCHELL: Well, obviously, not to this moment, but I believe the time must be very close.

One of the most wrenching days I ever spent in my life, actually two days, was to meet with the families of victims on each side when I was over there a couple of months ago. It's powerful. It's emotional. It's filled with grief and sorrow, and one can only imagine when that radiates out through the whole society, given the very large numbers of people killed and injured, and the fear and anxiety that hangs over the region like a heavy, unyielding fog.

I think if it's not there, it soon must be, because this conflict is devastating to both sides.

BROWN: I want to talk for a bit about the American role here. Has the change in administrations changed the dynamic? Is there less trust of this administration, the Bush administration, on one side or the other, than there was of the Clinton side?

MITCHELL: No, I don't believe so. The administration initially of course took the position that it was going to step back slightly, but the reality is that the United States cannot step back. There can be no resolution without American leadership, and the administration has responded, to their credit.

The director of the CIA was sent over. The secretary of state went over. The assistant secretary of state has been over. And I am certain that the administration is now considering other options and alternatives, but there is no substitute for American leadership. It simply does not exist anywhere in the world, although there has to be a cooperative effort with the European union and others who are involved in the region.

BROWN: Each side, right now, has issues that the international community is asking them to consider. I guess first among them is the desire for international monitors to help deal with stopping the violence. The Israelis have been very resistant to that. Anything the U.S. side can do to get the Israelis to move there?

MITCHELL: Well, of course, the United States through the secretary of state endorsed that recommendation in cooperation with the European union, and I'm certain that the administration is pursing that in the discussions with the Israelis.

But that's part of a larger package. What our commission concluded was that an international protection force, which is what we were asked to recommend, wouldn't work unless both sides supported it. The Israelis are opposed to it now, but I don't believe that is a forever refusal. I think the circumstances have to be right, and obviously from the Israeli standpoint, it has to be an American led and probably an American participation before it would be acceptable.

I think the larger issue, now, though, is to end the violence, to take the steps necessary to get a cooling off period, and these reciprocal steps to rebuild the confidence that, as I said earlier, has been so badly shattered over the past ten months.

BROWN: Sir, the president over the last couple of days has talked about this. I want to play one brief piece of sound from the president and then get you to respond to it, if you can do that.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BUSH: We wholeheartedly endorse the Mitchell Report. We have spent, on a near daily basis, talking to the different parties, urging them, because there is no -- there's nothing that an administration can do if there is no will for peace.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN: So, we're back to that question, is there a will for peace? And everybody, when asked this question, says of course there is. Nobody wants to live this way, but nobody seems to be willing to take the risks that are required to get there. Is that fair?

MITCHELL: That is fair. And the reason for that, Aaron, is there a total mistrust. Neither side believes the other. Neither side trusts the other. Neither side accepts the good intentions of the other. And as a consequence, what's needed is a painfully and painstakingly prepared effort that creates some assurance on both sides that if you take step A, the other side will take step B. And then you can take step C, and the other can take step D.

In the current atmosphere, no one is going to take the first step, because they don't believe that there will be a reciprocal step from the other side. And that's where I think the leadership of the United States, others interested, the European union and others, is necessary to help bring the parties together, to try to chart, or really to choreograph, that kind of sequence of actions.

BROWN: Let me ask a final question that may be, and I apologize if it is, a little unfair to ask of someone who is in a diplomatic role, but let me try anyway. Do you believe, sir, that Chairman Arafat actually can do a deal? That he has the political support for the right deal? And by that I don't mean a complete and total win, that there has to be compromise. Can he do a deal?

MITCHELL: Well, let me respond first by saying it's quite clear no one else could do a deal, and he is the chosen representative of the Palestinian people, so the whole notion of who else might do something is irrelevant at this point. My answer is yes, I believe he can, although with enormous difficulty, and I think his situation is deteriorating on a continuing basis as a consequence of the current situation, and I think the opposition, much more militant, is being strengthened by this conflict.

That's why I think it's in everyone's interest, everyone's interest, to try to bring this to a close as soon as possible. And I think it can be done if for no reason other than the current situation is truly unbearable. There is no military solution to this conflict. Neither side can inflict a total military defeat on the other because of the peculiar circumstances which exist, even though the Israelis have a vast military superiority, they can't bring it to bear effectively in these circumstances, and so there is going to have to be a negotiated settlement. There is no other way out of this conflict.

BROWN: Senator, it's good to talk to you. Senator George Mitchell.

MITCHELL: Thank you. Thank you, Aaron.

BROWN: Still ahead tonight, why does each side see all of this so differently? Why is it impossible for them to meet halfway, or nearly so? We'll get both sides from an Arabic diplomatic correspondent and journalist who also once worked for the Israeli government. That conversation in a moment.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BUSH: The cycle of violence has got to end, in order for, in order for the peace process, for any peace process to begin. And therefore, Mr. Arafat must clamp down on the suicide bombers and on the violence, and the Israelis must show restraint.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN: President Bush speaking this afternoon.

We're joined now by Zev Chafets, former director of the Israeli government press office, now a columnist here in New York for "The Daily News" and author of "Heroes and Hustlers, Hardhats and Holy Men." Also with us, Raghida Dergham, the senior diplomatic correspondent for "Al Hayat," a London-based Arabic newspaper.

Let's start with the president. Think either side, Mr. Arafat or Mr. Sharon, cares one wit about what the president said today?

RAGHIDA DERGHAM, COLUMNIST, "AL HAYAT": I think both care. Both people, and both leaders care about what the president of the United States says. This is the problem that the administration is not willing to go as far as needed at this point to really lead them out of the difficulty they have put themselves into.

I think it's the wrong approach to just say, let's fix it, and then stay away from it, and then maybe it will disappear and then when it is necessary we will get in. The administration should really think very strongly about either a new mandate for a wonderful man like Senator Mitchell, that is carrying things beyond where they are, because I think what he has recommended has been bypassed by events. So, either a new mandate for a great man like this, or maybe a new man. Maybe back with James Baker, who will bring the two parties, like he did after the Intifada, the first Intifada, nine months later working very hard, brought the two parties and had them come to a peace table.

BROWN: Let's come back to that. Do you think that the Israeli prime minister cares right now what the American president says, at least enough to do something about it?

ZEV CHAFETS, COLUMNIST, "DAILY NEWS": Well, the Israeli prime minister, whoever he is, always cares what the president of the United States says, whoever that is. And I'm sure that Sharon cares what Bush says in public. I'm sure that he cares even more what Bush says in private. And I'm sure that he cares about what Bush isn't saying, what he isn't hearing.

BROWN: And what is that?

CHAFETS: Well, I have a sense that the American government would like to stay somewhat away from this problem, or at least not to move into it until they're fairly sure that they have a solution.

BROWN: And do you think that's smart? Because, what -- you're making the argument in a sense that Raghida was just making, is that -- which is perfectly all right, by the way, that what needs to happen here is a kind of full American engagement.

CHAFETS: Well, it depends what it needs to happen here for. I mean, if the two sides are prepared for an agreement of some kind, then the Americans can facilitate an agreement.

If the sides aren't capable of making an agreement right, and I believe that they're not right now, then the Americans wind up banging their heads against the wall. If that's what President Bush wants to do, that's OK. I have a sense that he doesn't want to do that, and I have a further sense that he would like for the situation to deteriorate somewhat more in the hope that there'll be -- that one of the sides, namely the Palestinian side, will get to tired to fight and want peace.

BROWN: Let me, let's pick up on that in a moment, we need to take a break first. We'll continue our conversation in just a moment.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: Pretty pessimistic poll results, both of you. Let's, Zev and Raghida, just kind of pick up where we were. Is the time right? I mean, the argument, I think, that Zev is making, is at least if the Americans see this and perhaps on the ground, realistically, it's just not right for the Americans to engage in an absolute way. Quickly, do you disagree with that.

DERGHAM: I disagree, yes. I really disagree because, yes, of course, the constituencies both the Palestinian and the Israeli constituencies have to be ready. But I think also America must dare to be fair. And that is very important. That is why the United States is essential for anything to happen.

BROWN: You think this is administration...

DERGHAM: And the strength will be in being fair.

BROWN: Do you think this administration is less inclined to be fair than the previous administration?

DERGHAM: The previous administration just left the peace process for seven years and the last year just decided, well, you know what, we'll have a deadline and let's get to historic accomplishment, and things didn't happen in the right way that at least the administration wanted.

But then I think one of the most important problems and mistakes by that administration, the Clinton administration, was to assign blame. Which, again, we have heard accounts of what happened at Camp David and beyond, and then there was an assigning of blame, and I think it's really essential right now for this administration, the Bush administration, to look at the situation from a strategic point of view. Not the tactical approach pursued by the previous administration, and to honestly dare to be fair, because there is a solution there out for the Middle East. The 67 borders are really available, and this Intifada, Intifada II, the uprising, has created new grounds and the settlements, the issue of settlements, the policy of settlements had been defeated by this Intifada.

BROWN: Zev, let me ask you a question I asked Senator Mitchell, I'll ask both of you. Do you think Arafat politically has the power, the courage, to take the risk and cut a deal? If there was a deal in front of him? Let's say a deal, oh, like Camp David?

CHAFETS: Look, I don't want to assess Arafat's courage. He had a deal like Camp David in front of him at Camp David and he turned it down. So, obviously he's not, he's not courage enough or willing enough to accept that deal, which was a compromise, and it's almost all of the West Bank.

But, I want to say something about something else that Senator Mitchell said, which I think is quite wrong. I don't think that you can draw a parody between the suffering that the Palestinians are experiencing and the suffering that the Israelis are experiencing.

BROWN: Because they're dramatically different.

CHAFETS: Because the societies are dramatically different. Israel is -- I don't want -- I'm not an expert on how the Palestinians are doing. I understand that two-thirds of them in Gaza are out of work. I understand that people are living very badly.

In Israel, you have to understand that with all of the terrorist activities, Israelis are living very well.

BROWN: And so, I mean the argument here is that the Palestinians are taking the brunt of this. They're suffering much more. And therefore, what?

CHAFETS: Well, they're suffering much more because they're fighting and they're fighting with the stronger party. And when you fight with a stronger party, you are going to, you are going to get hurt more than the stronger party does.

But let me just finish the point, which is, that if they're waiting for Israel, if somebody is waiting for Israel to feel so much pain that it must agree to peace on the Palestinian terms, which are pretty much all or nothing...

BROWN: Not going to happen.

CHAFETS: That's never going to happen. Now, I don't know if the Palestinians will cave or not, but they certainly will cave before Israel does.

BROWN: Raghida?

DERGHAM: The Palestinians have less to savor and therefore they have less to lose, because occupation has been very costly and in the final analysis, this is not a winnable war. The Israelis will have to decide what do they want for their future. Do they want to live in the siege mentality? Do they want to coexist with the Palestinians state to state? Or do they want to be democratic finally in the real sense of a democracy and have one country for two people?

The Israelis will have to decide, because this is not -- right now they could win militarily...

CHAFETS: Well I can tell you that if Israel has to decide to agree on one country for two people, which is the same as saying the destruction of Israel as a Jewish state, the decision will be no.

DERGHAM: No, this is not -- you know, this is not what I said. One country for both the Palestinians and the Israelis. However, if this is not the choice, then it is a two state solution. The Palestinians are agreeing -- by the way, we now know that there was no deal at Camp David. We now know that this was -- it was a generous deal, we're told, but the fact of the matter that it did not offer a deal along the lines of 67 borders, June 4th. The Syrians said it and the Palestinian said it. You go -- you eliminate occupation, we give peace treaty. I don't understand why the Israelis don't just grab it, because extremism is going to reign.

BROWN: We'll leave the question on the table. Thank you both for joining us, very much. Enjoyed it a lot.

DERGHAM: Thank you.

BROWN: Thank you. We'll wrap it up for the night in just a moment.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: And another thing, a good part of the Israeli/Palestinian conflict is based on religious difference between Muslims and Jews. Although polls suggest pessimism that this conflict will ever end, history suggests otherwise.

European missionaries took up the sword to defend and advance their religion when they began colonizing South America and when they began the Crusades starting in the 10th century to take control of their Holy Lands from the Muslims who controlled it at the time.

What happened in these religious conflicts is that one side simply lost. The Crusades failed, it's Knights dead or driven back. In South America, the natives, their religion, their culture, essentially wiped out. Of course, not all religious conflicts do end this way. We're still waiting to see whether the uneasy truces in the Balkans and in Northern Ireland will take hold. But waiting to see whether peace works seems a good deal better than waiting to see whether war will.

I'm Aaron Brown in for Jeff Greenfield tonight. Tomorrow, weird tales from the courts. That's tomorrow. "SPORTS TONIGHT" is next.