Ron: Turning to a story that we've been following
closely on Connected, the winds of change in the Middle East. In
Lebanon the pro-Syrian is almost assured of being asked to form the
next Lebanese Government.
Prime Minister Omar Karami received the support of a majority of
Lawmakers in a preliminary vote today. It was only last week that
Karami was forced to resign in the wake of opposition protest. The
developments come just a day after a huge pro-Syrian demonstration in
Lebanon. Thousands of Syrians took to the streets in Damascus to show
their support for President Basir al-Asaad. He's come under increasing
fire from Western governments to get his troops out of Lebanon. Asaad
agreed to move his troops closer to the Syrian border, but there's no
timetable for complete withdrawal.
Well Monica I know that we've been talking a lot about the winds of
change and I've been saying that the winds can blow in all sorts of
different directions and I think that we're seeing that now. The
Middle East is just a very complicated place, lots of different
factions, lots of different agendas, and you know you could toss a
grenade into the middle of the whole thing and hope for the best but
there's likely to be good and bad coming out of this.
Monica: You know what's so interesting Ron is that last
week we were reporting on the Revolution that appeared to be happening
on the streets of Beirut in Lebanon. The desire of the Lebanese people
to remove the Syrian presence there on the ground in their own
Country. Now were reporting on these huge demonstrations in Syria,
that the Syrians (big surprise) with support from Hezbollah and other
terrorist groups want to keep a Syrian presence in Lebanon, and I
think what we might see here is a real deterioration in the situation
because of Hezbollah sparking and stoking these demonstrations in
Syria. And remember Ron, that Hezbollah is supported by Iran. So we've
got a number of outside players coming to bring pressure on the
situation and I'm afraid that it might just blow-up.
Ron: It could, It could.
Monica: Well here to help us converse about all of this
is here in the Studio is my Guest Micah Halpern he is a Middle East
Expert and blogger. His blog "The Micah Report" is can be found at
MicahHalpern.Com.
Ron: And my Guest is Raghida Dergham Senior Diplomatic
Correspondent for Al-Hayat newspaper and an MSNBC Analyst, She joins
us from New York, welcome to you both.
Ms. Dergham: Thank you.
Monica: Nice to see both of you and Micah let me begin
with you. So the demonstrations that we just saw yesterday and today
in Damascus Syria, pretty large crowds out there, what are we to make
of them?
Mr. Halpern: Well it's important that we realize that a
lot of these demonstrations are not necessarily just pro-Syrian
they're remarkably anti-American and anti-Western. It's very important
to put that into context. It's also important to
realize that we might be falling into the trap that Syria may be
setting for us. Remember that it's called the art of diplomacy, not
pound them with a sledgehammer. The United States has been hitting
hard on Syria around the World at every possible opportunity, so it's
very important to realize that we'd be much more effective if local
internal forces requested in force, and demanded that Syria pull out
of Lebanon.
Monica: Micah how spontaneous were these demonstrations
in Syria?
Mr. Halpern: Well I would say that they were very well
organized. And if you follow and try to watch the Syrian-base,
as well as the Hezbollah-based media, over the next few days you're
going to see a huge influence of Syria desire and wishes to stay in
Lebanon. That is the issue; remember that 20% of Syrian GNP comes out
of Lebanon, it's very important to them.
Ron: Raghida let me ask you, doesn't this sort of
highlight how complicated this issue of democratization in the Middle
East is, in any of the Countries of the Middle East, there are a lot
of factions there and as I've said before they have a lot of different
agendas; and it could ultimately lead to Civil war couldn't it?
Ms. Dergham: Certainly, but I think what's happening in
Lebanon in particular, is a very good example about the good meeting
between the internal and external pressures to bring about something
that a good sector of the society wants and I'm speaking about of
course the US and France on one the hand, together with Europe and the
mechanism established by the United Nations working together in sync
in effect with the Lebanese opposition saying to Syria,
"It's time that you get out of Lebanon" and have a Resolution 1559
which demands the disarmament of all militia's. But it is important
to pay attention to the internal ingredients of what's going on, it
should be very carefully watched, and Hezbollah from the internal
point of view, in Lebanon, is not called a Terrorist Organization it
is considered a very powerful organization but it has to be looked at
in a way, treated like you would treat Iran, with a lot of carrots.
Don't treat it with a stick. Just like you look at Al-Qaeda, this is
where we would lose the Lebanese opposition, and it would probably
then lead to a civil war. I hope not, I don't think so, so far I still
bet there will not be a civil war in Lebanon.
Ron: Well let's hope not, but Raghida let me ask you a
little bit about Hezbollah, they're in an awkward position here too,
they're sort of stuck, aren't they, between Syria, which has been
their sponsor and the will of the Lebanese people which seems pretty
intent on getting Syria out of the country.
Ms. Dergham: And Hezbollah will be taking a huge chance
if it sides squarely with Syria at this particular crossroad, because
it's very essential for Hezbollah to read what's going on among the
Lebanese, and the bottom line will have to be, Do I want to stand
against the Lebanese, and say, "welcome Syria, stay in Lebanon, and do
as you wish?"
Now if Hezbollah finds this in it's own interest, then it's going to
be gambling against the other Lebanese, and probably gambling with the
civil war, but I think it's not in its interest. therefore it's really
that the pressure must be on Syria to withdraw, and watch Syria
carefully to be sure that it does not only pull out the supporters and
remain influential in Lebanon, but also offer Hezbollah a lot of
carrots. Don't corner it into terrorism, otherwise we will be
threatening Lebanon and this beautiful Revolution and that
unfortunately might lead to civil war in that case.
Monica: Well Micah, I just want to underscore that in
point Hezbollah is in fact a terrorist organization. They were
responsible for bringing the people out into the streets of Damascus
over the past couple of days. What do these demonstrations tell us
about the relative power of Hezbollah?
We know that they're backed by the Iranians, of course.
Mr. Halpern: Well one of the most important things is
that it shows that Hezbollah itself represents an anti-Western
phenomenon. Remember that it's also very, it's a Shiite organization,
it's an organization that is responsible for the murder of
three-hundred people in the 1980's, 1983 in Lebanon, Americans
specifically.
It's an organization
which gets at the very root of some of the anger and the frustration
that most Arabs have towards the West, and if they call this whole
movement in Lebanon
a democratic Western movement, then it's going to be shared by a lot
of people on the street. That emotion is going to sound and resound
throughout Lebanon.
It's something that you have to be very careful for, and believe me,
Syria is going to be playing that card. Syria wants the card to be, "ah,..Hello??
these Westerners, outsiders, they're coming to take over Lebanon."
Monica: Well what about that International pressure
Micah, it's coming not just from the US and Israel this time, it's
coming from a large part of the International Community including the
French. So what do you expect to see from Basir al-Asaad in Damascus?
Mr. Halpern: I would say that the most important thing
is to get other Arab countries to pressure. Like we saw last week,
Saudi Arabia pressure, and Egypt to pressure, Jordan to pressure. We
need the Gulfies to pressure. We need a huge amount of pressure to be
brought from within, so that the revolution, or that the change
doesn't appear as if it's external.
If it looks like it's coming from Israel, or if it looks like it's
coming from America, or if it looks like it's coming from Europe, then
it will fail. Because the masses would prefer to have the Despot Syria
than they would an external American Bush/Sharon phenomenon there.
Ron: Raghida there is going to be, there are going to be
Parliamentary Elections in May in Lebanon. What sort of control will
Syria and/or Hezbollah exert over those Elections?
Ms. Dergham: Syria will have as President Bush said,
will have to get out from Lebanon before these Elections. Now I think
Syria will probably read this message clearly and will get out. I hope
for its own sake it should do so because otherwise it will also be
taking a huge chance...
Ron: Raghida I don't mean to, I don't mean to interrupt
you, but aren't they leaving a lot of Intelligence Agents behind even
if they're pulling their Army out?
Ms. Dergham: That was my second point. What they must be
sure not to do is to leave the intelligence to play havoc, or to make
problems because all they need to do is to sort of come from nowhere
and cause an incident, and then give everything a different dimension,
and probably break it apart. So the Syrians really need to read the
message clearly. However I think Hezbollah, what we need to do, and
Monica I see that you insist on calling it terrorist, and maybe it is
in your eyes, but I'm only pointing out that the Lebanese even those
in the Revolution will have a difficult time in defeating the agenda
of the Hezbollah if they call it a terrorist organization.
So in order to really win against Hezbollah, you need to make sure
that you attract it as a Political party only, and that is where it is
part of the System. This will not be the first time that an
organization in the past became a part of the Political fabric of
Society. I think this is a way to win, it's not about,...and you really
need to take it out of the context of Israel, because he's right, Mr.
Halpern is absolutely right, you bring it within the context of Israel
and........
(CROSS TALK)
Monica: I don't think you can remove it from the context
of Israel Raghida because,.....
Ms. Dergham: You need to, because it's a Lebanese
Revolution.
Monica: Hezbollah has continually targeted Israel, and
it's not just me calling Hezbollah a terrorist organization, it's the
State Department of the US has long classified it as such, and for a
very good reason.
Ms. Dergham:
I absolutely understand, this is where you stand, and I know, I
appreciate that you mean well, but if we want to safeguard the
Lebanese Revolution and bring it into democratization of the country,
we need to be practical, and we need to stop pushing, and we really
need to strategize and.............
(CROSS TALK)
Monica: And I think we need to stop apologizing for terrorist groups
like Hezbollah.
Ms. Dergham: I beg your pardon, I don't think I was
apologizing,... I was bringing to you
(CROSS TALK)
Monica: Sorry, we have to leave it there....
Ms. Dergham: a dimension that is; from the point of view
of the Lebanese.....
(CROSS TALK)
Monica: We will of course be keeping a close eye on
Lebanon and Syria as the situation develops. I want to thank Raghida
and Micah.
.
